Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

NC

NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered strong top-line and cash generation: revenue $5.32B, adjusted EPS $1.43, and record quarterly free cash flow of $1.71B, driven by 1.48Moz attributable gold and $3,320/oz realized gold price .
  • Solid beats versus Wall Street: revenue +8.4% and EBITDA +13.9% above consensus; adjusted EPS also exceeded expectations; guidance reaffirmed for 2025 .
  • Capital returns and balance sheet: $1.0B returned since last call, debt reduced by $372M, Board authorized an additional $3.0B buyback; quarter-end cash $6.2B and total liquidity $10.2B .
  • Operational cadence: AISC co-product fell q/q to $1,593/oz and CAS co-product to $1,215/oz; H2 sustaining/development capex will step up as planned, implying near-term FCF moderation despite stable production guide .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “All time record quarterly free cash flow of $1.7 billion,” underscoring portfolio quality and execution; on track for 2025 guide .
    • Realized gold price climbed to $3,320/oz (+$376 vs Q1), supporting revenue $5.32B and adjusted EBITDA $2.997B .
    • Unit costs improved q/q: CAS co-product per ounce down 1% to $1,215 and AISC co-product down 4% to $1,593, reflecting lower sustaining capex and divested higher-cost assets .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Red Chris incident overshadowed the quarter; operations at the site were suspended while rescue efforts progressed (CEO detailed emergency response and priorities) .
    • Higher income/mining cash taxes ($648M, +39% q/q) and H2 capex weighting expected to temper near-term FCF despite stable production .
    • Persistently high AISC at select sites (e.g., Cerro Negro $3,023/oz) highlights ongoing productivity work needed in parts of the portfolio .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.402 $5.010 $5.317
Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($)$0.74 $1.68 $1.85
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.72 $1.25 $1.43
Net Income ($USD Billions)$0.853 $1.891 $2.061
Cash from Operations ($USD Billions)$1.428 $2.031 $2.384
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$0.594 $1.205 $1.710
Net Income Margin %—37.74%*38.76%*

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment production (selected assets)

Asset (Attributable Gold Production, koz)Q1 2025Q2 2025
Boddington126 147
Lihir164 160
Cadia103 104
Tanami78 90
Ahafo205 197
Peñasquito123 148
Yanacocha105 131
Brucejack41 50
Nevada Gold Mines (38.5%)216 239
Pueblo Viejo (40%)49 63
Fruta del Norte (32%)43 38

Key KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$2,347 $2,944 $3,320
Gold CAS Co-Product ($/oz)$1,152 $1,227 $1,215
Gold AISC Co-Product ($/oz)$1,562 $1,651 $1,593

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (as of Feb/Apr 2025)Current Guidance (Q2 2025)Change
Total Attributable Gold (Moz)2025E5.9 5.9 Maintained
Gold CAS Co-Product ($/oz)2025E$1,200 $1,200 Maintained
Gold AISC Co-Product ($/oz)2025E$1,630 $1,630 Maintained
Sustaining Capital ($M)2025E$1,875 $1,875 Maintained
Development Capital ($M)2025E$1,330 $1,330 Maintained
Adjusted Tax Rate (%)2025E34% 34% Maintained
H2 Weighting (Core Portfolio)2025EH1/H2 mix previously outlined 50/50 production; sustaining 43/57; development 49/51 Seasonal mix updated commentary

Management’s Q3 commentary: production roughly in line with Q2, CAS similar; AISC slightly higher in Q3 due to sustaining capex ramp, with full-year AISC in line with guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Safety & Red ChrisFocus on stability and safety improvements across sites Detailed response to Red Chris fall-of-ground incident; operations suspended; rescue priority Elevated safety emphasis
Capital Allocation$1.0B returned YTD; buybacks ongoing Additional $3B buyback authorized; “best use of capital is to buy back Newmont stock” More aggressive buybacks
Sustaining/Dev Capex WeightingQ2 expected peak sustaining; H1-weighted H2 sustaining/dev capex weighted (57%/51%); Q3 AISC uptick from higher sustaining capex Shift to H2
Production Mix (Peñasquito, Cadia)H1 uplift expected, then transitions Peñasquito moving to higher Ag/Pb/Zn, lower Au; Cadia transitioning to BC23 with initial lower grade ramp-up Planned grade transition
Portfolio OptimizationDivestitures completed; productivity work ongoing Continued optimization at Lihir and across sites; record FCF supports capital returns Steady execution
Management ChangesCFO early redemption note; stability message CFO resignation addressed; Interim CFO in place; succession process underway Transition managed

Management Commentary

  • “Newmont delivered a strong second quarter…record quarterly free cash flow of $1.7 billion…We remain firmly on track to achieve our 2025 guidance…” — Tom Palmer, CEO .
  • “Our focus is internal. The best use of our capital is to buy back Newmont stock.” — Tom Palmer on capital allocation .
  • “We anticipate sustaining capital to be ~57% weighted to H2…including ventilation work at Tanami…tailings remediation and storage capacity at Cadia.” — Natascha Viljoen, President & COO .
  • “Going forward, we plan to more prominently present our unit costs under both co-product and byproduct methodologies…to assist benchmarking.” — Tom Palmer .

Q&A Highlights

  • Acquisitions vs buybacks: Management emphasized internal focus and buybacks over M&A; copper remains strategic via organic pipeline (e.g., Red Chris block cave) .
  • H2 cash flow drivers: Higher sustaining capex, rising reclamation spend (Yanacocha water plants ~$600M FY), and higher tax payments will pressure H2 FCF despite steady production .
  • Site-level outlook: Peñasquito shifting to more Ag/Pb/Zn with lower gold grades in Q3; Cadia ramping BC23 from lower initial grades; Lihir productivity and asset reliability improving .
  • CFO transition: Interim CFO in place; no changes to financial policies; succession process underway .
  • Non-core equity monetization: Discovery fully exited; partial Greatland stake remains with ~$100M contingent/deferred elements; Orla and Greatland seen as non-core equity positions .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 consensus vs actual (S&P Global):

MetricConsensusActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.90$5.32 Beat
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.16$1.43 Beat
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$2.72$2.997 Beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q3 2025 context (reported post-Q2): revenue $5.52B, adjusted EPS $1.71, EBITDA $3.305B vs consensus revenue $5.27B, EPS $1.44, EBITDA $3.063B — continued beats (S&P Global for consensus/actual; revenue/EBITDA/adjusted EPS figures derived from S&P Global and company disclosures).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Evidence of operating leverage: higher realized gold price and lower unit costs drove revenue/EPS/EBITDA beats and record FCF; momentum persisted into Q3 (consensus beats) .
  • Near-term FCF moderation likely in Q3/Q4 due to H2-weighted sustaining/dev capex, higher tax payments, and reclamation ramp; management still guides full-year metrics in line with guidance .
  • Capital return story strengthening: $3B incremental buyback authorization plus strong balance sheet (cash $6.2B, net debt/Adj. EBITDA 0.1x) underpin continued returns .
  • Portfolio optimization ongoing: Lihir reliability gains, Cadia panel cave transition, Peñasquito mix shift, and organic copper pipeline (Red Chris block cave) set medium-term trajectory .
  • Risk watch: safety at Red Chris, site-specific AISC at Cerro Negro, grade transitions at key mines; continued productivity and cost discipline remain critical .
  • Trading implications: positive estimate revisions plausible given beats and sustained pricing; monitor H2 capex/tax cadence for FCF timing and buyback execution pacing .
  • Thesis: disciplined execution, robust gold price, and capital returns anchor medium-term value creation; catalysts include H2 project milestones (Ahafo North commercial production), productivity initiatives, and incremental balance sheet de-risking .